What's the story this year? Across the board it's ‘steady as she goes'.
We list 91 centres this year - all those in Australia with a GLA in excess of 45,000m2. We show turnover figures on 87 of them; Westfield Fountain Gate, Westfield Carindale, Highpoint and Charlestown Square are either under redevelopment or have been recently and do not have a full year figures. Two of the 87 - Westfield Sydney and Robina Town Centre were under development last year and so don't have comparisons with 2011.
This means we can compare 85 centres on a this year / last year basis which means we are comparing 93.4% of the Big Gun centres in Australia.
If we regard a variation of less than 1% up or down as no variation - that is no increase or decrease on last year, then the picture is as follows:
Centres %
No change 22 26%
Increase in MAT 33 39%
Decrease in MAT 30 35%
Change < 4% 42 49%
Change > 4% 20 24%
So in a world in which retail sales are falling like the proverbial stone, in a world in which we've had a recent Global Financial Crisis, a hike in oil prices, a surging dollar, a roaring internet retail competitor, and in a country where for some unknown and unfathomable reason, we're sorting out the most asininely stupid and cretinous people we can find and putting them in government, what's happened to major shopping centres?
One would think they would be showing some distinct signs of distress. Are they?
Figures this year show that two thirds of them or 65% have had either no change or an increase in MAT whilst one third (35%) have had a negative result. Of the third with a negative result only 9 centres had a decrease greater than 4%.
Constantly we're being bombarded with statistics and opinions from analysts telling us the sky is about to fall in with regards to retail property.
These are the figures and they don't lie.
In terms of MAT, 16 of the Top 20 are the same as last year with the rises and falls similar to the whole table referred to on the left.
Of the 4 to drop out, Westfield Fountain Gate and Westfield Carindale are under redevelopment as is Highpoint and therefore not ranked this year. Canberra Centre dropped out from number 20 to 23.
The new Top 20 inclusions are Westfield Sydney coming in at $752 million taking 7th place, along with Robina Town Centre at 8th with a tremendous $741 million. Both of these centres are ranked in their new form (after redevelopment) for the first time this year.
Lakeside Joondalup is the star performer in terms of simply ‘moving up the ladder'. The Lend Lease centre showed a staggering 12.21% increase in MAT to $551 million, jumping 11 places from number 30 last year and entering the Top 20 at number 19. Westfield Carousel reached the rarefied heights by jumping four places from 24 to enter at number 20 raising the Top 20 bar to $541 million.
Top of the table remains the indefatigable Chadstone which simply, staggeringly in this day and age showed another rise; albeit a small one to record a stunning $1.297 billion MAT; whatever the internet is doing to retail sales, along with the high dollar, the cretinous pollies and the GFC, it ain't working at Chadstone!
Westfield Bondi Junction showed a drop of 3.6% on MAT, but you've got to ask against what? In its first full year of trading (2006) it entered the Top 20 at the same position it now occupies - Number 2 with a stunning $754 million.
It then proceeded through the GFC years to 2011 with increases of 9.4%, 9%, 4.4% and 6.4%. With this year's figure taken into account, it means that since opening, its increased its MAT by some 29%.
In terms of MAT/m2, Westfield Bondi Junction continues its dominance at the top of the table with a stunning $10,091 - down from last year, probably due to the opening of Westfield Sydney. Bondi Junction was acting as a sort of ‘de-facto' city centre whilst most of the city was under construction.
Westfield Sydney comes into the table for the first time at number 3 with $9,187. SCN tips it as the number 1 for next year!
Lend Lease's Caneland Central comes into the Top 10 (MAT/m2) with a resounding $8,671 testimony to a great redevelopment and management expertise which extends to another in their portfolio coming in at number 8 (from number 14 last year) Lakeside Joondalup.
And there's good performance news across the board in the Specialty shop component, fairly accurately reflectedin the Top 10 figures.
Looks like the Specialties are increasingly making ground on the department stores.
Westfield Doncaster increased by a whopping 10% and the company's Chermside recorded a 7.6% lift in Specialty performance with a massive $13,692.
Think about that; it means that if you were simply an ‘average' trader at Westfield Chermside - not even one of the best - and you had a 75m2 outlet, you'd be doing over $1 million a year!
And coming in for the first time at Number 1; who else but Westfield Sydney with a stunning $15,150. Westfield Doncaster hit its straps this year jumping 7 places from 15th to 8th with a very strong $11,544/m2. Colonial's Myer Centre Brisbane is a new entry, jumping up from 13 to 9, also over the $11,000/m2 mark.
So the Big Gun centres are very definitely weathering the storm and there's simply no evidence in the figures to show anything but an ‘evening out' of the massive growth we've had in the past decade or so.
We're seeing department stores taking a hit whilst specialties are doing well.
All Big Guns, Little Guns & Mini Guns across Australia are ranked by Size (GLA); Turnover (MAT); Turnover per square metre (MAT/m2) and Specialty Turnover per square metre (Specialty MAT/m2). Mini Guns are ranked by Size (GLA); Turnover (MAT) and Turnover per square metre (MAT/m2).
SCN lists and ranks all major Australian centres, in its various publications throughout the year. ‘Big Guns’ – all centres over 45,000m2. ‘Little Guns’ – centres with a GLA of between 20,000m2 and 45,000m2 and ‘Mini Guns’ – centres with a GLA of 6,000 – 20,000m2.
Read more - The Guns - Big, Little, Mini . . .